Will Interest Rates Rise in November? What to Watch in This Week's Inflation Figures

Interest rates. What's going to happen next?

It's the question I'm hearing everywhere right now, and I get it. Four rate rises this year. Power bills up 13%. Petrol up 13.5%. Every trip to the shops costs a little more than the last. And now everyone's asking: is another rise coming on 3 November?

You don't have to wait for the headlines to get a feel for it. The clues land on Wednesday.

Here's what to look for on Wednesday

1. The headline number

Last time, inflation hit 4.0% in the year to August, up from 3.5% the month before and well above the RBA's 2–3% target. If it's still climbing, that's a warning sign.

2. The “trimmed mean”

This is the number the RBA watches most closely. It strips out the biggest price swings to show what's really going on underneath. It's been stuck at 3.6% for three months. If it moves higher, the pressure for another rise goes up. If it eases, the RBA has room to hold.

3. Power and petrol

Electricity (up 13.2%) and fuel (up 13.5%) have been the big drivers over the past year. If they keep surging, so does the pressure on rates.

The RBA will take Wednesday's data, pull it apart, and decide just six days later whether we're due for another rise. Nobody knows which way it'll go, and even the economists are split. But you don't need to know to be ready. (Want the background on why inflation drives rates at all? Read how inflation affects interest rates in Australia.)

My advice? Review everything

Your mortgage. Your budget. Your expenses. Every bill, every subscription, every direct debit. When the cost of everything keeps climbing, every dollar you can claw back matters.

Start with your biggest expense: your mortgage

That's where I can help. Rates have moved four times this year. If your loan hasn't been reviewed since, it's worth checking you're still on a sharp rate. And if you're an essential worker, the right lender can count your overtime, shift allowances and penalty rates in full — something plenty of banks still won't do.